Tag Archives: Cobra Effect

The Cobra Effect

Unintended Consequences,

The effect is named after a book by German economist Horst Sibert, Der Kobra-Effekt, which describes a situation where the ‘solution’ inadvertently makes a problem worse. This is one of the most well-known examples of a perverse consequence. The book is said to detail many other examples of perverse consequences & the cobra effect, however I have not yet read the text.1

The following anecdote from the book explains the issue:2

Officials in colonial India wish to reduce the cobra population, and therefore introduce an incentive—payment for every dead cobra. In response, industrious individuals create cobra breeding programs as a form of income, doing little to nothing to curb the actual number of cobras. When the officials learn about this tactic they immediately end the incentive program. With no reason for breeders to hold on to their snakey captives, the cobras are released back into the wild, resulting in a greater number of cobras than before.3

From this description it seems evident that there are actually two points where issue emerged: one was the unanticipated/unacknowledged possibility of people taking advantage of the economic incentive, and the second was ending the program without considering a way to prevent captive cobras from being released. My ruling as judge and jury is that this consequence could have been anticipated, and that the plan could have been better implemented to improve these loopholes.

  1. It is written in German, and the best I can say for my skills in the German language is that they are emerging. Slowly. [↩]
  2. English explanations about the Cobra Effect imply that this actually occurred, however after briefly researching the event and failing to find specifics on where or when it happened, it seems very likely that this is a fictional anecdote. My question is: why? This seems like a phenomena with fascinating, real examples, why would the author need to make this one up? [↩]
  3. It is notable that another issue with this plan, be it real or fake, is that cobras are celebrated by Hindus which might put a damper on the execution of the idea. [↩]